Casino Bonuses Ranked by Real / Expected Value (EV)

Compare Casino Bonuses by Real Expected Value

The majority of bonus pages list the offers by the highest amount advertised. This is not what we do. Our approach is different. Our casino bonus value ranking offers by the amount you can expect to retain after meeting the wagering requirement on a standard pokie machine. This is a more accurate reflection of what is available. The table represents a casino bonus value comparison of the most popular types of bonuses available to Kiwis.

The EV figures represent losses that are expected during wagering and not total losses incurred from playing. A negative EV does not mean that a bonus does not have any value. It simply means that you will be expected to spend that amount clearing that requirement. A cashback bonus with a x5 wagering requirement will cost a lot less to clear than a welcome bonus with a x40 requirement.

Why EV Matters More Than Bonus Size

You should know that the highest value casino bonus is not always the largest one. We have two options here. We can either go for the NZ$500 welcome bonus with x50 wagering requirements or the NZ$200 welcome bonus with x25 wagering requirements. In the first option, we would have to wager a total bet of NZ$25,000 before the bonus can be cleared. In the second option, we would have to wager a total bet of NZ$5,000.

In this case, the better real value casino bonus is the NZ$200 option. You wager five times less for this option. Your chances of coming out ahead are much bigger as well. The size of the bonus is irrelevant. EV is what matters, because this is the number that tells you what the bonus is going to give you in reality.

What Expected Value Means for Casino Bonuses

Casino bonus EV is the net result you can expect after using a bonus. It is the result after considering the wagering requirements, the RTPs of the games you play, and the bonus itself. A good EV is a positive number. A negative number means you'll be finishing with less than you started.

Almost every single casino bonus in NZ has a negative EV. This is because it is designed this way. The wagering requirements are designed to minimize the risk for the casino. At any given RTP that is not 100%, you will lose money eventually due to the law of large numbers. What you need to do is find a bonus with an EV that is as close to neutral as possible but still gives you a good extension of playtime and a good chance of making money.

Casino bonus EV explained in simple terms: It is the cost of using the bonus. A bonus that costs you NZ$50 to clear but gives you NZ$200 in extra money to play with is useful. A bonus that costs you NZ$1,000 to clear but gives you NZ$500 in extra money to play with is not.

Bonus EV Explained

Here is the step-by-step EV calculation for the standard NZ welcome offer. These are the bonus expected value casino steps we use here at 101RTP:

1. Choose the casino with the bonus.
2. Enter the amount of bonus in the simulator.
3. Choose the wagering requirement.
4. Enter the amount of bet per spin.
5. Simulate and repeat several times.

How Casino Bonus Expected Value Is Calculated

Essentially, there are only four variables that determine the casino bonus math value: the bonus, the wagering multiplier, the RTP of the eligible games, and the game contribution rate. If any of these variables is altered, then the entire EV changes dramatically.

This is the casino bonus probability model in its simplest form. It illustrates how important it is to have a high RTP. A 97% RTP machine with a wager requirement of x25 on a NZ$100 bonus gives you a positive expected value, while playing a 94% RTP machine with a wager requirement of x35 on a NZ$100 bonus will cost you NZ$130 on average.

How RTP Affects Bonus EV

The casino bonus RTP effect is one of the most underestimated factors in the value of the bonus. Most people concentrate on the wagering multiplier and do not consider the RTP of the games they play. A difference of 2% in the RTP of the games will result in a huge difference in the expected loss for thousands of spins.

In the case above, the amount of the bets will be NZ$4,000. The expected loss at a 94% RTP will be NZ$240. At the same time, the expected loss at a 97% RTP will be NZ$120. You will lose NZ$120 in addition with the same bonus.

Some casinos also offer a lower RTP variation of popular pokie titles. A pokie might have a 96% RTP from the provider but a 94% RTP at the casino. It is essential to look at the RTP displayed on the game information screen before beginning a wagering session. We at 101RTP also point out such casinos in our reviews.

Game Contribution and Its Impact on EV

The casino bonus wagering effect of game contribution rates is the most common cause of confusion with casino bonuses. Playing games with contribution rates lower than 100% actually increases the wagering multiplier. For example, a game with a wagering requirement of x40 with a contribution rate of 50% for your chosen game is actually the same as having a wagering requirement of x80 in real value.

Playing table games or live dealer games with a low contribution rate for the bonus makes it impossible to meet the wagering requirements.

Why the Biggest Casino Bonuses Are Not Always the Best

A big advertised bonus certainly grabs the eye, but the casino bonus real value ultimately depends entirely on what you have to do to use the bonus itself. For example, a NZ$2,000 bonus with wagering requirements of x50 could mean NZ$100,000 in total bets placed. If you are betting NZ$2 per spin, this equates to 50,000 spins, or if you are playing 100 spins per session, this equates to 500 sessions. For the vast majority of NZ players, the bonus offer will expire before the wagering requirement is met.

For casinos that offer huge bonus offers, they are likely to have conditions in place that make the wagering requirement very difficult, if not impossible, to meet, such as a minimal time limit of just 7-14 days, a small maximum bet limit of NZ$2-NZ$3 per spin, as well as limiting the games you are allowed to play, such as pokies with a high RTP.

Max Withdrawal Limits and Bonus Value

A withdrawal cap is a limit placed on how much you can withdraw from your winnings, irrespective of your account balance. Some casinos have a withdrawal cap of between NZ$200 and NZ$500, or 3x to 5x, for welcome bonuses. If you have completed a NZ$500 bonus with x40 wagering requirements and you have NZ$800 in your account, a NZ$200 withdrawal cap would mean you would not be able to withdraw NZ$600.

Before you take up a big bonus, always ensure you check the maximum withdrawal limit. If the maximum withdrawal limit is lower than your bonus, then you have a problem. The best bonuses have no maximum withdrawal limit or have one set at 10x or higher.

Factors That Influence Casino Bonus EV

Our casino bonus EV ranking at 101RTP weights each factor below when we calculate the real value of every taken offer. This is the casino bonus EV model that we apply consistently to all bonus types:

Wagering requirements and game RTP have the highest impact on variance in EV. A bonus with a fair wagering requirement and high RTP games will always be better than a larger bonus with a high wagering requirement and limited game availability.

Common Casino Bonus Mistakes

Knowing EV will help you avoid the most costly bonus mistakes. The following are the three common mistakes that reduce the actual bonus value the most.

Ignoring Wagering Requirements

The player sees the high amount of the bonus and takes it without calculating the total amount they will have to bet. For example, the NZ$300 bonus with a wagering requirement of x50 has NZ$15,000 in total amount that has to be wagered. This is equivalent to 7,500 spins at NZ$2 per spin. Most players do not achieve this before the expiration of the bonus and lose the bonus and the winnings they made with it.

Choosing High Playthrough Bonuses

A casino bonus with a wagering requirement of x60 or x70 has an expected value close to zero for the average player. The expected amount lost during play is more than the amount they are given as a bonus at a realistic RTP. These bonuses are given for the purpose of attracting registrations and do not have the potential for players to make money. Avoid bonuses with wagering requirements higher than x50 unless the combination of the amount and RTP has a positive expected value, as shown in the table above.

Not Checking Withdrawal Limits

It is important to note that just because a wagering requirement has been met, it does not mean that a full withdrawal can be made. For example, a 3x bonus limit means that if a bonus of NZ$100 has a wagering requirement that has been met, allowing a balance of NZ$1,000 to be played through, a withdrawal of only NZ$300 can be made. It is important to check this limit as well as the wagering requirement before deciding whether to take an offer or not.

Conclusion

By ranking bonuses by best casino bonus value, you get a better idea of the real worth of the bonuses. The real figure for the bonuses is not the one usually advertised. Rather, it is the figure remaining after the requirements for the bonuses have been met. We at 101RTP calculate this figure for each offer. You can use the tables above to compare the offers by the real cost to you, pick the best pokies by RTP for the wagering requirements, and consider the limits before you start playing.